CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2025-11-05T22:23:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Nov 06 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels due to an M8.6/2b flare at 05/2207 UTC
from Region 4274 (N24E33, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with the
flare were an 180 sfu Ten-flare, type II radio sweep (1,395 km/s), and
an asymmetric halo CME with the majority of the ejecta off the NNE limb
as observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 05/0224 UTC.
Preliminary analysis showed an arrival early to midday on 08 Nov.

Region 4274 continued to be in a growth phase with the large
intermediate spots beginning to shear away from the trailing spots.
Movement along the magnetic deltas within the group will likely result
in further significant flaring.

A new region rotated around the SE limb and was numbered as 4276
(S17E74, Dai/beta). Although the group is too close to the limb for
accurate spot analysis, it was responsible for the X1.1 flare on 04/2201
UTC and managed to produce an M1.1 flare at 06/0431 UTC recently.

.Forecast...
Solar activity will remain at moderate to high levels as the regions in
the eastern hemisphere persist in their activity. There is a 80% chance
for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) level radio blackouts, and a 35% for R3
(Strong) levels through 08 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels
with a peak flux of 2,290 pfu observed at 05/1655 UTC.

Enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV electron flux following the X1.8
at 04/1734 UTC continues, but remains well below the S1 (Minor)
radiation storming levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 08 Nov due to the likely arrival of multiple
CMEs.

With multiple significant flares occurring from Region 4274 - further
enhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is possible. Will
maintain a 35% chance for S1 (Minor) storming levels through 08 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became enhanced after 05/1745 UTC, likely from the
arrival of the partial halo CME first observed at 03/0936 UTC associated
with the M5.0 flare at 03/1011 UTC from Region 4274. Total field
gradually increased to a maximum of 24 nT at 06/0715 UTC while the Bz
component was mostly southward between 05/1506-06/0520 UTC reaching a
maximum of -17 nT. Solar wind speed showed an increase from
approximately 350 km/s to near 400 km/s after 05/1600 UTC followed by
another increase to 550 km/s around 06/0730 UTC. Phi angle was mostly
positive until 06/0708 UTC when it became variable.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters will remain enhanced due to persistent transient
activity along with an incoming CIR preceding a HSS, and three more CMEs
on the way. The most significant disturbance is expected to be the full
halo CME associated with the M7.4 at 05/1119 UTC. Calculated velocities
between 1,100 to 1,400 km/s should put the CME arrival time right around
the turn of the UTC day on 07 Nov. A sharp rise in density and IMF
coupled with rapid rise in solar wind speeds is expected.

For a visual representation of this interaction, please see the most
recent WSA-Enlil model prediction at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field increased to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic
storm levels after 05/2010 UTC. G3 (Strong) levels occurred at 06/0527
UTC due to CME effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain enhanced 06-08 Nov due to
the aforementioned solar wind disturbances described in the Solar Wind
section. The CME influencing the field is currently, coupled with an
incoming CIR/HSS, and the arrival of a full halo CME is expected to
produce G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming levels on 06-07 Nov with G1
(Minor) levels on 08 Nov. Watches have been issued for these times with
moderate to high confidence in timing, and moderate confidence in
magnitude.

Depending on the model output from the most recent CME associated 

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2025 Nov 06 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 06-Nov 08 2025

             Nov 06       Nov 07       Nov 08
00-03UT       5.33 (G1)    7.33 (G3)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       6.67 (G3)    6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    5.00 (G1)    4.00     
09-12UT       3.33         7.33 (G3)    3.67     
12-15UT       3.33         6.33 (G2)    3.33     
15-18UT       3.00         4.67 (G1)    3.00     
18-21UT       5.67 (G2)    3.67         3.00     
21-00UT       6.67 (G3)    3.33         3.67     

Rationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 06-07
Nov, with G1 (Minor) likely on 08 Nov, due to the arrival of multiple
CMEs coupled with CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025

              Nov 06  Nov 07  Nov 08
S1 or greater   35%     35%     35%

Rationale: With multiple significant flares occurring from Region 4274 -
further enhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is possible.
Will maintain a 35% chance for S1 (Minor) storming levels through 08
Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 05 2025 2207 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025

              Nov 06        Nov 07        Nov 08
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   35%           35%           35%

Rationale: Solar activity will remain at moderate to high levels as the
regions in the eastern hemisphere persist in their activity. There is a
80% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) level radio blackouts, and a 35%
for R3 (Strong) levels through 08 Nov.

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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